The March Dollar Index is down 3.5 ticks at 75.465 this morning as I write.  The included chart shows that the down trend in the dollar continues, although for the past month, prices have been wavering back and forth.  Prices seem to be attempting to challenge in the direction of the recent contract lows of 74.89 reached two weeks ago.  The historical low for the dollar index is 70.695 made in March 2008.  Barring any changes in the attitude at the Fed, I would expect the dollar to eventually challenge those historical lows in the months to come.  Given the trading activity as of late, I recommend standing aside in the dollar index for now.  I don’t see any good trades to do from a risk reward standpoint.  The directional movement indicators, all seem to be falling along with the ADX line suggesting that there is no solid trending market in the short run.  The longer term charts still show the solid down trending dollar market, just not the short term.

David Hall

 The information  and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not  necessarily indicative of future results.