The March Dollar Index is down 48.5 ticks at 74.97 making new contract lows this morning as I write.  This weakness in the dollar is helping most commodities bounce higher today.  The included chart shows that the dollar down trend is strong.  The directional movement indicators are bearish but the ADX line is still edging lower which is bothersome for a trend that looks this solid.  You would think that the ADX line would be rising by now.  I would term this as a reluctant nervous down trend which means that at the first sign of trouble, short traders would probably cover short positions quickly.  I expect that eventually the dollar will test its all time lows in the 70.69 area made last year.  I don’t see any good short trades to place on the dollar at this time that wouldn’t involve a high degree of risk.  So I recommend standing aside in the dollar for now.

 David Hall

The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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