The March Euro is up 44 ticks at 1.4377 this morning as I write.  The included chart shows that the Euro is still in an intermediate term down trend but is beginning to show support just above the 200 day moving average.  The directional movement indicators are still bearish but narrowing and the ADX line is beginning to turn down suggesting that the down swing in prices may be coming to an end.  Yesterday, as I began seeing this unfold, I recommend to liquidate our deep in-the-money covered put write trade.  Here are the results from that trade.  We covered our short Euro futures contract at 1.4338 for a gross profit of $5387.50 and we liquidated the short March Euro 1.5100 put option at 820 ticks for a gross loss of $3562.50, so the overall gross gain on this trade was $1825.00!

We will continue to hold the ratio call and put spreads.  Happy New Year!

 Followers should be long one March Euro (1.3850 strike) put from 121 ticks and short 2 March Euro (1.3400 strike) put options from 67 ticks each for an overall credit of 13 ticks or $162.50 gross.

You should also be long one March Euro (1.5750 strike) call option at 134 ticks and short 2 March Euro (1.6100 strike) calls at 75 ticks each for an overall credit of 16 ticks or $200 gross.

 March Euro options expire in 64 days.

 David Hall

 The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 This newsletter is not intended for dissemination to the public without prior approval from David Hall.

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The March Dollar Index is down 37.5 ticks at 77.895 this morning as I write.  The included chart shows that the March Dollar is beginning to struggle within its current rally.  So, is this the end of the dollar correction before the next bear leg begins or is this just light volume trading ahead of the New Year’s holiday.  The directional movement indicators are still bullish but narrowing rapidly and the ADX line is beginning to slope back downward.  This is not a good sign for the would be bulls in the near term.  I think that it is time to tighten up our trade now.  Today, I recommend raising our protective stop on our long March Dollar Index futures contract from 77.15 up to 77.65 which is just below the lows for this week.  I also recommend raising our price to buy back the short March Dollar 79.00 call from 80 ticks up to 90 ticks.  As the day goes on today, I may change some of these prices, so stay tuned.  I am looking for the sidelines today!!

 Followers of this letter should be long one March Dollar Index futures contract from 76.585, and be using a protective stop at 77.65 GTC. 

You should also be short one March Dollar Index (79.00 strike) call option from 130 ticks or $1300 gross.

There are 64 days left until the March Dollar index options expire.

 David Hall

 The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 This newsletter is not intended for dissemination to the public without prior approval from David Hall.

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March Crude Oil is up 8 cents at $79.67 this morning as I write.  The included chart shows that March crude oil is beginning to struggle as prices approach the down trend line, marked in light blue, just above the $80.00 level.  If prices fail up here, then I would look for prices to return back down to the mid to lower $70’s per barrel once again.  The longer term secular trend for crude oil is still up, but we still may have to go through several weeks of base building before that uptrend resumes.  We will let the charts tell us.  The directional movement indicators are slightly bullish and the ADX line is still falling suggesting that there is no strength behind this near term up move.  I recommend holding our current ratio put spreads.

 Followers of this letter should have the following positions:

 Long one March Crude Oil ($69.00 strike) put option from $2.90

Short 2 March Crude Oil ($64.00 strike) put options from $1.65 each.

Long one March Crude Oil ($62.00 strike) put option from $1.51.

Short 2 March Crude Oil ($57.00 strike) put options from 83 cents each.

 March Crude Oil options expire in 49 days.

 David Hall

 The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 This newsletter is not intended for dissemination to the public without prior approval from David Hall.

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The March Euro is down 12 ticks in quiet trading at 1.4338 this morning as I write.  The included chart shows that the March Euro is still well entrenched in an intermediate term down trend  The directional movement indicators are bearish, but the ADX line is beginning to flatten out.  This may be an early warning sign that the down trend in the Euro may be running out of steam.  Since much of the potential gain in the covered put write Euro trade has already been realized, let’s go ahead and take profits on that trade.  I recommend liquidating the short March Euro futures contract and buying back to liquidate the short March Euro 1.5100 strike put option at around 820 ticks, the current price.  Hold on to the rest of our trades.

 Followers should be long one March Euro (1.3850 strike) put from 121 ticks and short 2 March Euro (1.3400 strike) put options from 67 ticks each for an overall credit of 13 ticks or $162.50 gross.

You should also be long one March Euro (1.5750 strike) call option at 134 ticks and short 2 March Euro (1.6100 strike) calls at 75 ticks each for an overall credit of 16 ticks or $200 gross.

You should also be short one March Euro futures contract form 1.4769, and short one March Euro (1.5100 strike) put at 535 ticks, or $6687.50. (Being liquidated today!!)

 March Euro options expire in 65 days.

 David Hall

 The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 This newsletter is not intended for dissemination to the public without prior approval from David Hall.

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The March Dollar Index is up 10.5 ticks at 78.29 this morning as I write.  The dollar index is still in an intermediate term up trend.  The directional movement indicators are bullish and the ADX line continues to edge higher at a slower pace.  Although the price is not close right now, I still continue to recommend attempted to cover the short March Dollar 79.00 call option at 80 ticks GTC, and also to leave our protective stop at the same level.

 Followers of this letter should be long one March Dollar Index futures contract from 76.585, and be using a protective stop at 77.15 GTC. 

You should also be short one March Dollar Index (79.00 strike) call option from 130 ticks or $1300 gross.

There are 65 days left until the March Dollar index options expire.

 David Hall

 The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 This newsletter is not intended for dissemination to the public without prior approval from David Hall.

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The March Dollar Index is down 22.5 ticks at 77.79 this morning as I write.  The included chart shows that the downside correction of the intermediate uptrend in the dollar continues.  The directional movement indicators are bullish and the ADX line continues to edge higher.  Yesterday, I recommended to try to buy back the short March Dollar index 79.00 call option for 80 ticks.  So far that trade has been unable to get filled but we will continue to work the order GTC.  I also want to leave the protective stop in the same spot as listed below.

 Followers of this letter should be long one March Dollar Index futures contract from 76.585, and be using a protective stop at 77.15 GTC. 

You should also be short one March Dollar Index (79.00 strike) call option from 130 ticks or $1300 gross.

There are 66 days left until the March Dollar index options expire.

David Hall

 The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 This newsletter is not intended for dissemination to the public without prior approval from David Hall.

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The March Euro is up 41 ticks at 1.4394 this morning as I write.  The included chart shows that the March Euro is bouncing after selling off steadily over the past three weeks.  For now, I expect that this is just a price bounce before the Euro attempts to selloff further.  The directional movement indicators are bearish and the ADX line is still rising suggesting that there should be more selloffs coming in the Euro.  I recommend holding on to our current position. 

 Followers should be long one March Euro (1.3850 strike) put from 121 ticks and short 2 March Euro (1.3400 strike) put options from 67 ticks each for an overall credit of 13 ticks or $162.50 gross.

You should also be long one March Euro (1.5750 strike) call option at 134 ticks and short 2 March Euro (1.6100 strike) calls at 75 ticks each for an overall credit of 16 ticks or $200 gross.

You should also be short one March Euro futures contract form 1.4769, and short one March Euro (1.5100 strike) put at 535 ticks, or $6687.50.

 March Euro options expire in 67 days.

 David Hall

 The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 This newsletter is not intended for dissemination to the public without prior approval from David Hall.

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The March Dollar Index is down 22.5 ticks at 77.95 this morning as I write.  The included chart shows that the March dollar index is still in some sort of correction of the recent uptrend.  I would expect support to hold in the 77.34 area where the 90 day exponential moving average comes in.  We shall see.  The directional movement indicators are bullish and the ADX line continues to rise, suggesting that there is more dollar rally to come soon.  Until that picture changes, I will continue to fine tune our long dollar covered call write trade.

As the dollar corrects downward here, our short dollar call option loses value which is good for us.  On the anticipation of this downward correction coming to an end soon, I want to cover our short call option at a lower price, while maintaining our protective stop on the futures contract just in case.  Therefore, I recommend attempting to buy back our short March Dollar 79.00 strike call option, previously sold for 130 ticks, at a price of 80 ticks, and make that a Good Until Cancelled (GTC) order.  It is going to take more selloff in the dollar index for this order to be filled.  I may adjust the price of the order in the next several days.

 Followers of this letter should be long one March Dollar Index futures contract from 76.585, and be using a protective stop at 77.15 GTC. 

You should also be short one March Dollar Index (79.00 strike) call option from 130 ticks or $1300 gross.

There are 67 days left until the March Dollar index options expire.

 David Hall

 The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 This newsletter is not intended for dissemination to the public without prior approval from David Hall.

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The March Euro is up 60 ticks at 1.4394 this morning as I write.  The included chart shows that the March Euro is bouncing firmly off of the green 200 day moving average.  The directional movement indicators are still bearish and the ADX line is still rising, suggesting to me that another down leg in the Euro is probable after this short bounce.  The currency markets close at noon today, so I recommend holding our current positions as is for now and enjoy the holiday weekend.

 Followers should be long one March Euro (1.3850 strike) put from 121 ticks and short 2 March Euro (1.3400 strike) put options from 67 ticks each for an overall credit of 13 ticks or $162.50 gross.

You should also be long one March Euro (1.5750 strike) call option at 134 ticks and short 2 March Euro (1.6100 strike) calls at 75 ticks each or $937.50 each. 

You should also be short one March Euro futures contract form 1.4769, and short one March Euro (1.5100 strike) put at 535 ticks, or $6687.50.

 March Euro options expire in 71 days.

 David Hall

 The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 This newsletter is not intended for dissemination to the public without prior approval from David Hall.

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The March Dollar Index is down 27 ticks at 77.96 this morning as I write.  The included chart shows that the dollar is now having its first pull back from the sharp rally over the past month.  So, does the dollar have another rally leg coming or is this all there is for the dollar correction inside the secular bear market?  The directional movement indicators are bullish and the ADX line is still edging higher.  Until proven otherwise, I would have to say that this is a pullback inside of an intermediate term rally in the dollar, meaning that there is probably another rally leg to come.  Notice that the green 200 day exponential moving average is beginning to show up on the chart, today at 79.933.  I recommend holding our protective stop right where it is for now.

 Followers of this letter should be long one March Dollar Index futures contract from 76.585, and be using a protective stop at 77.15 GTC. 

You should also be short one March Dollar Index (79.00 strike) call option from 130 ticks or $1300 gross.

There are 71 days left until the March Dollar index options expire.

 David Hall

 The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 This newsletter is not intended for dissemination to the public without prior approval from David Hall.

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