The March Euro is up 27 ticks at 1.4279 this morning as I write.  The included chart shows that the Euro is involved in a steep intermediate selloff that has already reached down to the 200 day exponential moving average.  The directional movement indicators are bearish and the ADX line continues to rise confirming the strength of this down trend.  I recommend holding our current covered put write trade on as is for now.  Once the lion’s share of the potential gain is realized, I may then recommend taking profits.  The maximum possible gain on this euro trade is $2550 gross.  Currently, we are ahead about $1700 on the trade.  I may be interested in taking early profits if we get ahead around $2000 or more.  Until then, it would take an important change in the look of the chart for me to exit early.  For now, stay with the trade.

 Followers should be long one March Euro (1.3850 strike) put from 121 ticks and short 2 March Euro (1.3400 strike) put options from 67 ticks each for an overall credit of 13 ticks or $162.50 gross.

You should also be long one March Euro (1.5750 strike) call option at 134 ticks and short 2 March Euro (1.6100 strike) calls at 75 ticks each or $937.50 each. 

You should also be short one March Euro futures contract form 1.4769, and short one March Euro (1.5100 strike) put at 535 ticks, or $6687.50.

 March Euro options expire in 72 days.

 David Hall

 The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 This newsletter is not intended for dissemination to the public without prior approval from David Hall.

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The March Dollar Index is down 8.5 ticks at 78.525 this morning as I write.  The included chart shows that the March Dollar Index is involved in a strong intermediate rally.  The directional movement indicators are bullish and the ADX line is rising confirming the strength of the trend.  We currently have a covered call write trade in place, and I recommend leaving everything the same for today.  I would expect that trading volume will slow significantly between now and tomorrows noon close prior to the Christmas holiday on Friday.

 Followers of this letter should be long one March Dollar Index futures contract from 76.585, and be using a protective stop at 77.15 GTC. 

You should also be short one March Dollar Index (79.00 strike) call option from 130 ticks or $1300 gross.

There are 72 days left until the March Dollar index options expire.

 David Hall

 The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 This newsletter is not intended for dissemination to the public without prior approval from David Hall.

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The March Euro is unchanged at 1.4286 this morning as I write.  The included chart shows that the Euro has reached the 200 day moving average on the down side and could find some temporary support in this area.  Otherwise, the trend is down for the intermediate term.  The directional movement indicators are bearish and the ADX continues to rise supporting the idea that prices have further to drop.

I recommend staying with current positions.

 Followers should be long one March Euro (1.3850 strike) put from 121 ticks and short 2 March Euro (1.3400 strike) put options from 67 ticks each for an overall credit of 13 ticks or $162.50 gross.

You should also be long one March Euro (1.5750 strike) call option at 134 ticks and short 2 March Euro (1.6100 strike) calls at 75 ticks each or $937.50 each. 

You should also be short one March Euro futures contract form 1.4769, and short one March Euro (1.5100 strike) put at 535 ticks, or $6687.50.

 March Euro options expire in 73 days.

 David Hall

 The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 This newsletter is not intended for dissemination to the public without prior approval from David Hall.

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The March Dollar Index is up 3 ticks at 78.45 this morning as I write.   The included chart shows that the dollar index continues to trend higher since making lows in late November.  The directional movement indicators are bullish and the ADX line continues to rise.  My target, near term, is for the dollar to rally into the area of the 200 day exponential moving average in the 80.00 area, not shown on the chart.  We have a protective stop at 77.15 and have written a 79.00 strike call option for 130 ticks.  That pretty much has the dollar locked in where I want it, based on the projected target.  Now, I recommend keeping everything the same and react to what the dollar does going forward.  If prices spike way up from here, then we will look to liquidate the trade and take profits.  If prices fall and hit our sell stop, I will probably recommend buying back the short call for a profit to liquidate the whole trade as well.  Otherwise, if prices begin to meander at this level, time value of our short call will make that position progressively more profitable.

 Followers of this letter should be long one March Dollar Index futures contract from 76.585, and be using a protective stop at 77.15 GTC. 

You should also be short one March Dollar Index (79.00 strike) call option from 130 ticks or $1300 gross.

There are 73 days left until the March Dollar index options expire.

 David Hall

 The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 This newsletter is not intended for dissemination to the public without prior approval from David Hall.

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The March Euro is up 34 ticks at 1.4353 this morning as I write.  The included chart shows that the March Euro is bouncing today after prices tested the 200 day exponential moving average last Friday.  The directional movement indicators are bearish and the ADX line is rising but being contained within the downward sloping 5 day exponential moving average, so far.  I recommend keeping our current positions for now.  I am not getting any signs that the ADX line is ready to rollover, so the current downtrend in the Euro seems to have more to go.

 Followers should be long one March Euro (1.3850 strike) put from 121 ticks and short 2 March Euro (1.3400 strike) put options from 67 ticks each for an overall credit of 13 ticks or $162.50 gross.

You should also be long one March Euro (1.5750 strike) call option at 134 ticks and short 2 March Euro (1.6100 strike) calls at 75 ticks each or $937.50 each. 

You should also be short one March Euro futures contract form 1.4769, and short one March Euro (1.5100 strike) put at 535 ticks, or $6687.50.

 March Euro options expire in 74 days.

 David Hall

 The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 This newsletter is not intended for dissemination to the public without prior approval from David Hall.

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The March Dollar Index is down 19 ticks at 78.005 this morning as I write.  The included chart shows that the near to intermediate trend of the dollar is upwards.  The directional movement indicators are bullish and the ADX line is rising.  The March dollar index continues to trade above the 5, 40, and 90 day exponential moving averages as it approaches the 200 day moving average  that is located in the 80.00 area.  The low of the day, last Thursday, before the strong secondary break out that occurred on that day, was 77.29 and the 90 day exponential moving average comes in today at 77.25.  I believe that those two areas need to hold in the near term for this dollar rally to last.  Therefore, I recommend raising our protective stop up from 76.93 to 77.15 GTC.  This protective stop will probably stay in place for a while until more evidence arises that we need to move the stop again.  We have to be careful about where to place the protective stop now, and the fact that we have written a call option gives us the leeway to keep the stop a distance away.

 Followers of this letter should be long one March Dollar Index futures contract from 76.585, and be using a protective stop at 77.15 GTC. 

You should also be short one March Dollar Index (79.00 strike) call option from 130 ticks or $1300 gross.

There are 74 days left until the March Dollar index options expire.

 David Hall

 The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

This newsletter is not intended for dissemination to the public without prior approval from David Hall.

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The March Euro is down 17 ticks at 1.4329 this morning as I write.  The included chart shows that the March Euro had a steep drop yesterday plunging well below the 90 day exponential moving average and is now approaching the green 200 day moving average which is down in the 1.4250 area.  The intermediate term and short term charts of the Euro now have a bearish bias.  The directional movement indicators are bearish and the ADX line is rising swiftly confirming the strength of the bear trend.  At some point, I will be attempting to take profits on our covered put write trade once the lion’s share of the potential gains are made.  For now, I recommend letting the trade continue to work and more time to lapse.

 Followers should be long one March Euro (1.3850 strike) put from 121 ticks and short 2 March Euro (1.3400 strike) put options from 67 ticks each for an overall credit of 13 ticks or $162.50 gross.

You should also be long one March Euro (1.5750 strike) call option at 134 ticks and short 2 March Euro (1.6100 strike) calls at 75 ticks each or $937.50 each. 

You should also be short one March Euro futures contract form 1.4769, and short one March Euro (1.5100 strike) put at 535 ticks, or $6687.50.

 March Euro options expire in 77 days.

 David Hall

 The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 This newsletter is not intended for dissemination to the public without prior approval from David Hall.

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The March Dollar Index is down one tick at 78.08 this morning following yesterday’s sharp rally.  The included chart shows the sharp rally of yesterday closing well above the blue 90 day exponential moving average.  The 200 day moving average is above near the 80.00 area, which is still not showing on the chart yet.  From the contract lows, a move up to 80.00 would represent a 7% bounce.  The long term secular trend is still down, but this rally in the dollar will most likely create some doubts about whether the long term trend is turning up or not.  For now, I am playing this as a rally in a longer term bear market.  My target is 80.00.  Yesterday, we were successful in selling one March Dollar 79.00 strike call option at 130 ticks.  We also raised our protective stop up to 76.93.  So now, if the Dollar falls back and hits and fills our stop at 76.93, then we will realize a gross gain of $345 plus the call option would lose some value so that we would liquidate that for some profit as well.  The best case scenario now is for the March Dollar to close above 79.00 at expiration.  Our short call would then be exercised and we would sell our long position at 79.00, that would realize a gross gain of $2415 plus we would keep the option premium of $1300 from yesterday, for a total gross gain of $3715.  Option expiration is not until March 5^th, so it is highly likely that we will be liquidating this trade well before then.

 Followers of this letter should be long one March Dollar Index futures contract from 76.585, and be using a protective stop at 76.93 GTC. 

You should also be short one March Dollar Index (79.00 strike) call option from 130 ticks or $1300 gross.

March option expiration is in 78 days.

David Hall

 The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 This newsletter is not intended for dissemination to the public without prior approval from David Hall.

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The March Euro is sharply lower, down 173 ticks at 1.4339 this morning as I write.  The included chart shows the dramatic fall of the Euro at the moment.  We can’t say that we weren’t warned by what the chart was saying many days ago, as most important trend lines and moving averages were broken down.  If nothing else, people who were long should have at least gotten flat.  The directional movement indicators are bearish and the ADX line is rising swiftly confirming the bearish strength of the down move.  My special report the I wrote on the Euro days ago also suggested that the long term charts were even suggesting that a top might be in.  Now, even the fundamentals are beginning to agree as Greece, Italy, Portugal and other Euro countries are having major financial difficulties.  So I ask you; If you had large sums of money to deposit anywhere, where would you want your money right now?  In British Pounds?  Probably not.  In Euro’s?  Probably not.  US Dollars?  Maybe, if these three were my choices, at least for now.  Western Europe may be in worse financial shape than we are.  But, really, who are we kidding.  We are all in serious financial shape, so it may be that all the western world’s currencies are in a race for the bottom.  The beneficiary countries for the moment are those that don’t have similar housing problems and also have a lot of natural resources, like Canada and Australia.  Hell, even the Mexican Peso is gaining on the dollar and other currencies.  All this suggests to me is that this rally in the dollar is a much needed correction of the longer term secular trend.  Just remember that it only takes a 5% upward correction off the recent prices in the dollar to get prices back up to 80.00.  This is really a small move in the big scheme of things.  As time goes on, we will have to evaluate and let the chart tell us when it is time to buy Euro’s or sell the Dollar again.  For now, we will maintain our current positions in the Euro.

 Followers should also be long one March Euro (1.3850 strike) put from 121 ticks and short 2 March Euro (1.3400 strike) put options from 67 ticks each for an overall credit of 13 ticks or $162.50 gross.

You should also be long one March Euro (1.5750 strike) call option at 134 ticks and short 2 March Euro (1.6100 strike) calls at 75 ticks each or $937.50 each. 

You should also be short one March Euro futures contract form 1.4769, and short one March Euro (1.5100 strike) put at 535 ticks, or $6687.50.

 March Euro options expire in 78 days.

 David Hall

 The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 This newsletter is not intended for dissemination to the public without prior approval from David Hall.

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The March Dollar Index is up 77.5 ticks at 78.11 this morning as I write.  The included chart shows that the dollar is continuing its break out to the upside.  The directional movement indicators are bullish and the ADX line is rising.   This is bullish!  My original target on this trade was 80.00, which is near the 200 day exponential moving average, and it looks like the dollar may reach that level soon and maybe go higher.  I would expect some resistance as prices approach the 80.00 area.  The March Dollar 79.00 strike call is currently going for about 118 ticks.  Today, I recommend attempting to sell the March Dollar 79.00 strike call option for 130 ticks for the day only.  If filled, that will turn our long futures position into a covered call write trade.  I also recommend raising our protective stop on the March Dollar futures contract up to 76.93 GTC, which is up from 76.63 GTC.

 Followers of this letter should be long one March Dollar Index futures contract from 76.585, and be using a protective stop at 76.63 GTC. 

 David Hall

 The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 This newsletter is not intended for dissemination to the public without prior approval from David Hall.

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