The March Euro is up 23 ticks at 1.4546 this morning as I write.  The included chart shows that the March Euro looks very weak on the chart, as prices are trading and closing below the 5 to 90 day moving averages and below key uptrend lines.  The directional movement indicators are bearish and the ADX line is rising confirming the strength of this downtrend.  The commentary from the Fed after their meeting today could be a market mover later today.  I recommend staying with our current positions for now.

 Followers should also be long one March Euro (1.3850 strike) put from 121 ticks and short 2 March Euro (1.3400 strike) put options from 67 ticks each for an overall credit of 13 ticks or $162.50 gross.

You should also be long one March Euro (1.5750 strike) call option at 134 ticks and short 2 March Euro (1.6100 strike) calls at 75 ticks each or $937.50 each. 

You should also be short one March Euro futures contract form 1.4769, and short one March Euro (1.5100 strike) put at 535 ticks, or $6687.50.

 March Euro options expire in 79 days.

 David Hall

 The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 This newsletter is not intended for dissemination to the public without prior approval from David Hall.

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The March Dollar Index is down 16 ticks at 77.14 this morning as I write.  The included chart shows that the March Dollar Index is keeping with its latest cycle of rallying sharply one day, and having a mild pullback the next.  All of these trading days are maintaining closing prices and most of their trading ranges above the 5 day exponential moving average.  The directional movement indicators are bullish and more importantly, the ADX line is rising confirming strength in this bull move.  Commentary coming from the aftermath of today’s Fed meeting may be a market mover later today.  Yesterday, we attempted to write the March 79.00 strike call option for 130 ticks, but were unsuccessful.  For today, I will not reenter that order for now.  I will continue to recommend places to raise our protective stop as time goes on.  If the dollar has a significant sharp rally later today, I will probably come out and recommend writing that 79.00 strike call option, but for now, we will wait.

Followers of this letter should be long one March Dollar Index futures contract from 76.585, and be using a protective stop at 76.63 GTC. 

 David Hall

 The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 This newsletter is not intended for dissemination to the public without prior approval from David Hall.

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Take a look at the included weekly long term chart of the Euro.  The major uptrend line in blue was broken in the last two weeks.  This trend line had held up since March of this year.  So has the Euro topped out?  Or is the Euro just changing the angle of its long term ascent?

Another uptrend line, drawn in red, has been broken this week.  The next support level comes in near 1.4400 which is the level in September, that prices broke out and rushed to the recent highs.  So, that breakout point, near 1.4400 now becomes support.  The other bearish thing about this chart is the bottom directional movement indicators.  The red line hasn’t crossed the green line to point long term bearish yet but is getting closer.  The problem is the purple ADX line has now turned down from a lofty level following a several month up move.  On the daily charts we currently have a covered put write trade and a put ratio spread to attempt to take advantage of this potential down move.  For now, I expect that this is an intermediate correction that is large and may only last several weeks before resuming the long term uptrend, but I will have to see how this develops over time and let the chart tell us what is happening.

 David Hall

 The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 This newsletter is not intended for dissemination to the public without prior approval from David Hall.

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The March Euro is down 112 ticks at 1.4531 this morning as I write.  The included chart shows that the Euro is clearly breaking down on the chart as prices have broken both the 40 and 90 day exponential moving averages along with the major up trend line coming up from June.  I have to say; looking at the longer term weekly chart, it appears that a lot of damage is being done to the long term uptrend in the Euro as well.  At least for the intermediate term, it looks like the Euro has topped out.  I will put out a special report on the Euro later showing the weekly longer term chart so that you can see what I am talking about.  Has the US Dollar Bottomed??  Near term, it clearly has, but as for the secular long term, I don’t think so yet.  Stay tuned.

 Followers should also be long one March Euro (1.3850 strike) put from 121 ticks and short 2 March Euro (1.3400 strike) put options from 67 ticks each for an overall credit of 13 ticks or $162.50 gross.

You should also be long one March Euro (1.5750 strike) call option at 134 ticks and short 2 March Euro (1.6100 strike) calls at 75 ticks each or $937.50 each. 

You should also be short one March Euro futures contract form 1.4769, and short one March Euro (1.5100 strike) put at 535 ticks, or $6687.50.

 March Euro options expire in 80 days.

 David Hall

 The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 This newsletter is not intended for dissemination to the public without prior approval from David Hall.

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The March Dollar Index is up 62.5 ticks at 77.36 this morning as I write.  The included chart shows that the dollar is beginning to break out to the upside, now well beyond the brown 40 day exponential moving average and today eclipsing the blue 90 day exponential moving average.  What you can’t see on the chart yet is the 200 day moving average which is just above 80.00.  The 200 day moving average is one of my targets for this long trade that we have in the dollar.  The directional movement indicators are bullish and ADX line is beginning to rise suggesting trend strength for this up move in prices.  Yesterday we attempted to write the March 79.00 call option for 85 ticks but, thankfully were unsuccessful in getting filled.  For today only, I recommend attempting to sell the March Dollar Index (79.00 strike) call option for 130 ticks.  Prices aren’t that high yet, no, it will take a further sharp rally in the dollar today for that order to get filled.  I also recommend raising our protective stop from 76.19 up to 76.63 stop GTC.  That would bring the stop up just below yesterday’s price lows and just above our entry price.

 Followers of this letter should be long one March Dollar Index futures contract from 76.585, and be using a protective stop at 76.63 GTC. 

 David Hall

 The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 This newsletter is not intended for dissemination to the public without prior approval from David Hall.

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The March Euro is up 13 ticks at 1.4627 this morning as I write.  The included chart shows that the euro looks like it is rolling over to the downside after forming a top in the 1.5100 area over the past month.  The secular trend of the euro is still up, but intermediate term it is obvious that some sort of correction is occurring now.  The euro is trading and closing below both the 40 and 90 day moving averages and the 5 day moving average is now rolling down over the top of the latest price action.  The directional movement indicators are bearish and the ADX line is rising suggesting that this down move in the euro is gaining strength.  I recommend holding our current positions.

 Followers should also be long one March Euro (1.3850 strike) put from 121 ticks and short 2 March Euro (1.3400 strike) put options from 67 ticks each for an overall credit of 13 ticks or $162.50 gross.

You should also be long one March Euro (1.5750 strike) call option at 134 ticks and short 2 March Euro (1.6100 strike) calls at 75 ticks each or $937.50 each. 

You should also be short one March Euro futures contract form 1.4769, and short one March Euro (1.5100 strike) put at 535 ticks, or $6687.50.

 March Euro options expire in 81 days.

 David Hall

 The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 This newsletter is not intended for dissemination to the public without prior approval from David Hall.

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The March Dollar Index is down 12.5 ticks at 76.83 this morning as I write.  The included chart shows that on Friday, the dollar index began to break out to higher near term levels, but there should be a lot more follow through if so many investors are short dollars and if they are worried about their position in the dollar.  So far, this dollar rally has rallied and stalled right at the 90 day exponential moving average.  On Friday, I recommended moving up our protective stop on our long dollar index position, to 76.19, which is just below the past three days low prices.  Now that the dollar has begun to move to the upside, I believe that prices should follow through right away, so if the lows of the past few days come out, I want out especially considering that the long term trend of the dollar is still down.  Today, I recommend trying to sell one March Dollar Index (79.00 strike) call option for 85 ticks or better.  This will turn this trade into a covered call write.  We will continue to hold our protective stop if filled on the option.  If prices fall and hit our protective stop, I will probably recommend taking profits on this short call if filled shortly afterward.  My original target to the upside on this dollar trade was 80.00, so selling this call option now helps to bring some of that potential gain now rather than to wait.

 Followers of this letter should be long one March Dollar Index futures contract from 76.585, and be using a protective stop at 76.19 GTC. 

 David Hall

 The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 This newsletter is not intended for dissemination to the public without prior approval from David Hall.

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The included chart shows that the March Dollar Index is finally beginning to follow through to the upside today.  Now that this has happened, I want to raise our protective stop up from 75.79 to just below the past three days of price lows.  I recommend raising the sell stop on the March Dollar Index from 75.79 to 76.19 GTC!  My feeling is that the dollar should support and work higher in the near term.  I am tentatively looking for a target on this move up near 80.00 but we will wait and see how the dollar develops on the way.

 David Hall

 The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 This newsletter is not intended for dissemination to the public without prior approval from David Hall.

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The March Dollar Index is up 9.5 ticks at 76.505 this morning as I write.  The included chart shows that the March Dollar is still holding the break out of the 5 and 40 day exponential moving averages and the down trend line coming down from June.  The directional movement indicators are bullish and the ADX line moving sideways.  We are just waiting for some follow through to the upside.  I am content to be patient with this trade as long as the break outs continue to hold and that prices don’t spend more than a day or two longer in this area.  I want to see these levels hold and follow through by Monday.

 Followers of this letter should be long one March Dollar Index futures contract from 76.585, and be using a protective stop at 75.79 GTC. 

 David Hall

 The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 This newsletter is not intended for dissemination to the public without prior approval from David Hall.

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The March Euro is up 28 ticks at 1.4742 this morning as I write.  The included chart shows that the euro seems stalled for the moment although still holding below the breakdown of the 5 and 40 day exponential moving averages and below the uptrend line coming up from several months ago.  The directional movement indicators are bearish and the ADX line is rising suggesting that there is some strength to this down move.  I am just waiting for some actual follow through.  I recommend holding our current positions.

 Followers should also be long one March Euro (1.3850 strike) put from 121 ticks and short 2 March Euro (1.3400 strike) put options from 67 ticks each for an overall credit of 13 ticks or $162.50 gross.

You should also be long one March Euro (1.5750 strike) call option at 134 ticks and short 2 March Euro (1.6100 strike) calls at 75 ticks each or $937.50 each. 

You should also be short one March Euro futures contract form 1.4769, and short one March Euro (1.5100 strike) put at 535 ticks, or $6687.50.

 March Euro options expire in 85 days.

 David Hall

 The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 This newsletter is not intended for dissemination to the public without prior approval from David Hall.

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