The March Mini S&P Index is down 3.50 points at 1105.00 this morning as I write.  The included chart shows that the S&P continues to struggle every time prices reach near the 1114.00 area as it did for about the 10^th time over the past month,  yesterday.  So far, the price pull backs off these highs have been shallow, so the overall upward bias in the S&P continues.  The directional movement indicators are bullish but the ADX line continues to edge lower suggesting a lack of trend strength.  There just doesn’t seem to be enough momentum to move stock prices much further up yet although you get the sense that eventually prices will push to higher levels, begrudgingly.  This is still the classic climbing of the wall of worry which makes up many stock bull markets.  I am content to hold on to our ratio call and ratio put spreads that we already have for now.

 Followers of this letter should be long one March Mini S&P (1190 strike) call from 17.00 and short 2 March Mini S&P (1220) call options from 9.50.

You should also be long one March Mini S&P (1000.00 strike) put option from 23.00 points and short 2 March Mini S&P (935 strike) put options from 12.75 points each for a total credit of 2.50 points or $125 gross.

March Mini S&P options expire in 94 days.

David Hall

 The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 This newsletter is not intended for dissemination to the public without prior approval from David Hall

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Here we go again.  The March Mini S&P is up 6 points at 1109.00 this morning as I write.  The included chart shows that the S&P has already tested the recent highs in the 1114.00 area earlier this morning.  You have to be impressed with the resilience of the stock market these days.  This is about the 9^th or 10^th time the S&P index has challenged the 1114.00 area over the past month.  So, will the market finally break out here or drop back inside the range again?  The directional movement indicators are bullish but the ADX line is edging lower suggesting no major trend strength right now.  That being the case, even if the S&P breaks out here, I would not expect a huge upward move.  Looking at the sideways pattern of late, a breakout right now in the S&P may project prices up into the 1150 area, maybe even higher based on some measurements.  Not bad.  First, the S&P needs to break out and close in a break out.  We currently own ratio call spreads and ratio put spreads on the S&P and are content to hold those positions.

 Followers of this letter should be long one March Mini S&P (1190 strike) call from 17.00 and short 2 March Mini S&P (1220) call options from 9.50.

You should also be long one March Mini S&P (1000.00 strike) put option from 23.00 points and short 2 March Mini S&P (935 strike) put options from 12.75 points each for a total credit of 2.50 points or $125 gross.

March Mini S&P options expire in 95 days.

 David Hall

 The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 This newsletter is not intended for dissemination to the public without prior approval from David Hall.

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The March Mini S&P Index is up 5 points at 1102.25.  The included chart shows that the S&P is holding up quite well inside the month long trading range.  In the recent several months, as commodities rose in value, the stock market did as well.  Now, commodities seem to be correcting sharply, and yet the stock market is holding up well, but not following through to the upside, just holding.  We have to keep an eye on this sideways pattern.  A close that is clearly outside of the trading range should bring on good follow through trading in that direction.  Yesterday, we were able to fill on the ration put spread on the March Mini S&P.  We bought the March Mini S&P 1000/935 put spread 1*2 for a gross credit of $125.00.  It would take a 10% correction in the Mini S&P’s from here to reach the higher strike price of 1000.00.  If prices never get down to 1000.00 by expiration on March 19^th, then the options will expire and we will keep the $125.00.  The best result would be if prices reach the 935.00 area on expiration date, where the potential gain would be the difference between the strike prices of $3250 gross.  The risk on this trade will be if the S&P spikes down towards the lower strike price too quick and too soon before enough time value eroded.  So, now we have a ratio call spread and a ratio put spread.

 Followers of this letter should be long one March Mini S&P (1190 strike) call from 17.00 and short 2 March Mini S&P (1220) call options from 9.50.

You should also be long one March Mini S&P (1000.00 strike) put option from 23.00 points and short 2 March Mini S&P (935 strike) put options from 12.75 points each for a total credit of 2.50 points or $125 gross.

March Mini S&P options expire in 98 days.

 David Hall

 The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 This newsletter is not intended for dissemination to the public without prior approval from David Hall.

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The March Mini S&P Index is up 6.50 points at 1097.50 this morning as I write.  The included chart shows that the S&P index is holding up very well versus its commodities brothers.  This is very impressive, but the reality is that the S&P is still stuck inside its trading range of the past four weeks.  The directional movement indicators are now back on top of each other following several days of swings back and forth from bullish to bearish and back to bullish again.  The ADX line continues to fall suggesting that there is no strong trend in the S&P right now.  We already have on a ratio call spread that could take advantage of another 10% rally in the stock market until March.  Today, I want to enter a ratio put spread that could take advantage of a 10% downward correction in the stock market.  I recommend buying one March Mini S&P (1000.00 strike) put option and sell 2 March Mini S&P (935.00 strike) put options for an overall credit of 2.50 points which is a gross credit of $125.00. 

 Followers of this letter should be long one March Mini S&P (1190 strike) call from 17.00 and short 2 March Mini S&P (1220) call options from 9.50.

March Mini S&P options expire in 99 days.

 David Hall

 The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 This newsletter is not intended for dissemination to the public without prior approval from David Hall.

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The March Mini S&P Index is down 3.25 points at 1082.00 this morning as I write.  The included chart shows that the S&P is attempting to correct to the downside.  So far it appears to be very similar to the previous two or three minor corrections of 4 to 6%.  The recent highs were 1114.25, so a 6% correction would bring the S&P down to the 1047.00 area.  A 4% correction would only bring prices down to the 1070.00 area.  The past two or three corrections only lasted an average of 8 trading days.  So far, this correction is in its 3^rd day.  Again, as I have said before, the risk here is that once you think that you have figured a cycle out on rallies and corrections, things coincidentally change.  So, the best thing to do if you a bullish and waiting for the next time to buy, is to wait for the chart to give you clues on when to buy.  Let the market fall where It may over whatever time period.   Many analysts have been looking for more of a 10% type of correction for the past few months, which now would put the S&P back down to the 1000.00 area.  The trend since March has been up.  The directional movement indicators are bearish and the ADX line is beginning to go sideways at a low level after a continual fall recently.  I have too many technical indicators that are conflicting here to take any new positions in the S&P so stand aside from putting anything new on for now.

 Followers of this letter should be long one March Mini S&P (1190 strike) call from 17.00 and short 2 March Mini S&P (1220) call options from 9.50.

March Mini S&P options expire in 100 days.

 David Hall

 The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 This newsletter is not intended for dissemination to the public without prior approval from David Hall.

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The March Mini S&P Index is down 9.25 points this morning at 1089.75 as I write.  The included chart shows that the long term trend in the S&P is up, ever since prices hit a low in March.  It appears that the S&P trend has been stalling in the 1110.00 to 1115.00 area recently that has formed a flat top plateau look on the chart.  The pull back in prices today is only just a small break inside the recent trading range.  The directional movement indicators are trying to cross to the bear side after flipping back and forth a couple times over the past couple weeks.  The ADX line continues to fall suggesting a lack of trend for now.  I think that the stock market is in a period of indecision for now, and so we shouldn’t be in any rush to get aggressive right now.  So let’s stand aside from placing any new trades for now.

 Followers of this letter should be long one March Mini S&P (1190 strike) call from 17.00 and short 2 March Mini S&P (1220) call options from 9.50.

March Mini S&P options expire in 101 days.

 David Hall

 The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 This newsletter is not intended for dissemination to the public without prior approval from David Hall.

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The March Mini S&P Index is down .75 of a point at 1102.50 this morning as I write.  The included chart shows that despite all the volatility in all the commodities markets and the dollar since Friday, the stock market has held fairly stable.  The S&P is forming a plateau, flat looking chart pattern.  Overall, this just confirms the indecision of investors on what to do right now.  A clear break below or above this trading range should give us clues as to what the next trend direction will be.  The trading range that I am speak of is between 1079.00 on the bottom side and 1115.00 on the top side.   A close outside that range will be bullish or bearish depending on the direction.  In the mean time, the directional movement indicators are virtually right on top of each other and the ADX line is edging lower.  All of these indicators just add more confirmation that this sideways pattern is going on, and may not be in any rush to move outside of that range for a while.  We will have to be patient with the stock indices for now.  We will hold on to our current positions for now.

 Followers of this letter should be long one March Mini S&P (1190 strike) call from 17.00 and short 2 March Mini S&P (1220) call options from 9.50.

March Mini S&P options expire in 102 days.

 David Hall

 The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 This newsletter is not intended for dissemination to the public without prior approval from David Hall.

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The March Mini S&P Index is 14.75 points at 1108.00 this morning following the better than expected employment report just released.  The report showed that unemployment fell to 10%.  My question is whether more people are really being employed or if people that have been unemployed are just falling off of the unemployment rolls as their benefits have expired so they don’t show up on the statistic anymore.  The included chart shows that the S&P is still in a longer term bull move since March.  For the past three weeks prices have been stalling in the 1115.00 area.  So today’s news still hasn’t been able to send prices above the recent highs.  Yesterday, we were able to enter a ratio call spread though.  We bought one March Mini S&P (1190 strike) call option at 17.00 and sold two March Mini S&P (1220 strike) call options at 9.50 for an overall credit of 2 points or $100 gross.  The S&P would have to increase another 10% from here to reach those levels.  That is fine with me as long as it takes 10 or 12 weeks to get there.  In the mean time, buying the Mini S&P futures and writing a call has been on my mind but I want to see whether the rally on this news is just a reactionary rally later in the day.  Stay tuned.

 Followers of this letter should be long one March Mini S&P (1190 strike) call from 17.00 and short 2 March Mini S&P (1220) call options from 9.50.

March Mini S&P options expire in 105 days.

 David Hall

The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 This newsletter is not intended for dissemination to the public without prior approval from David Hall.

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The March Mini S&P Index is up 9 points this morning at 1111.50 as I write.  The included chart shows that the March S&P is in a strong uptrend despite the doubts of many market commentators.   I am not sensing any complacency by investors at this time to get too worried about stocks yet.  That attitude has been offset somewhat by other market commentators beginning to look for higher and higher stock values going forward.  The shape of the chart looks like the S&P wants to charge higher in the near term.  The directional movement indicators are bullish and the ADX line is flat.  Prices are breaking out to new highs over the recent resistance.  This morning, I recommend attempting to buy one March Mini S&P (1190 strike) call and selling 2 March Mini S&P (1220) call options at a  credit of 2 points or $100 gross.  For prices to reach the upper strike price of this trade, the S&P will have to rally another 10% above here.  The March options expire in 106 days.  If at expiration, prices never reach 1190, then the options will expire worthless and we would keep the $100.  If prices reach 1220 at expiration, then the maximum possible gain would be $1500 gross, the difference between the strike prices.  The risk on this trade would be if prices spike up the upper strike price too soon.  That would force us to liquidate the trade early to avoid the risk of the one naked short call option at the 1220 level.  I believe that the stock market will work its way higher in a reluctant way since the market is already up over 60% since March.

 David Hall

 The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 This newsletter is not intended for dissemination to the public without prior approval from David Hall.

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The March Mini S&P Index is up 6.5 points at 1110.00 this morning as I write.  The included chart shows that the S&P remains in an uptrend and could be breaking the cycle that has happened over the last few months.  Prices are beginning to make higher highs when they should have been well into the cyclical correction similar to the past few months.  This suggests that prices for the market are going higher, at least in the near term.  I may put out a ratio call spread idea on the S&P today.  Stay tuned.

 David Hall

 The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 This newsletter is not intended for dissemination to the public without prior approval from David Hall.

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