Today, I am going to begin following the March contract of the Mini S&P Index.  The March Mini S&P Index is up 11.75 this morning at 1101.75 as I write.  The included chart shows that the S&P index is attempting to test back towards the recent price highs at 1107.00.  The chart is bullish as the S&P continues to make higher highs and higher lows.  This current rally is important to see whether prices can continue to make new highs and press on higher.  Based on the last few months of trading, the S&P should be ready to correct to the downside.  The directional movement indicators have been bearish recently but act like they may cross bullish today if the rally holds up.  So, today’s rally attempt is important to watch to see whether the recent highs hold back this rally or not.  Some of my other indicators are mixed on the strength of this rally.  So, I recommend standing aside in the S&P for now.

David Hall

 The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 This newsletter is not intended for dissemination to the public without prior approval from David Hall.

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The December Mini S&P Index is up 6.25 points at 1109.25 this morning as I write.  The included chart shows that the uptrend since March is still in play.  Prices are testing their recent highs.  The directional movement indicators are bullish and the ADX line is still fluttering sideways to higher.  I am currently flat in the S&P futures and we will stay that way for now.  If you are long stocks, stay long, but if you are nervous, you can always either buy put options on stocks that you own, write calls against stocks that you own or simply take some profits off the table.  The trend is still up until proven otherwise.

David Hall

 The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 This newsletter is not intended for dissemination to the public without prior approval from David Hall.

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The December Mini S&P Index is down one point at 1102.75 this morning as I write.  The included chart shows that the uptrend in the stock market is still intact.  Prices are still in the vicinity of the target level they should be in at this time based on the previous two or three rally and correction cycles.  The 1115.00 area should be the high end for this cycle before the next 4 to 6% correction.  The timing is for the correction to begin right about now.  Again, my experience has been over the years, that just when you think you have figured a trading cycle out, something else happens.  All the same worries for the market are still in place technically.  The volume on the rallies have been lower and the volume on the correction selloffs have be higher.  That is normally not good.  Trends usually follow the volume.  I still recommend standing aside in the mini S&P for now.  If you have a full stock portfolio, and your are nervous, you can always take some profits off the table, or but put options on stocks you own or write covered calls on stocks you already own.

 David Hall

 The information  and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not  necessarily indicative of future results.

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The December Mini S&P Index is up 18.25 points at 1108.25 this morning as I write.  The enclosed chart shows that the S&P remains in a strong uptrend that is now testing its recent rally highs in the 1112.00 area.  Based on the last two corrections and rallies, the target for this rally should be in the 1115.00 area.  But since we have figured that out by observation, it probably won’t happen like that again.  The bottom line is that, despite all the ‘talking heads” that you hear about that are worried about the stock market or predicting a big selloff, the trend remains upward.  The “wall of worry” is being climbed!  I will start to worry when everyone gets complacent about the rally.  That doesn’t mean that you shouldn’t take some stock profits along the way or buy some protection with either the purchase of put options or writing calls against stock that you already own.  I recommend standing aside in the S&P futures for now, because there is now low risk reward way to enter the market from here.  Please note that as emotionally good it feels that the market is up today on a strong move; prices are still within the trading range of the past week or two.  This is where the TV business channels can get people all emotional and charged up to put on trades that they may regret later.  Keep the emotions out of the trading.  Pretend like you are shopping for tennis shoes.  Do you want to buy them on sale at $50 a pair or do you want to pay full retail at $120 or higher per pair? 

 David Hall

 The information  and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not  necessarily indicative of future results.

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