March Treasury Bonds are down 6/32 this morning at 115:22 as I write.  The included chart shows that March T-Bonds are still involved in a fairly steep decline in price ever since the neckline of the double top was broken a week ago in the 117:00 area.  That 117:00 area is now resistance on any rallies.  Traders should be looking to sell short more March Bonds on rallies back towards the 117:00 area.  The directional movement indicators are bearish that the ADX line continues to rise.  The measured initial downside target for March Bonds is 111:00 as mentioned in previous letters.  On this expected light trading day prior to New Years, I recommend holding our current positions and enjoy the holiday.

 Followers should be:

 Long one March Bond (114:00 strike) put option from 2 12/64. (Cost basis of 28/64, or $437.50, if you include the buy back of the two short 110:00 put options on December 8th).

Long one March Bond (108:00 strike) put option from 52/64.  (Cost basis of 2/64, or $31.25, if you include the buy back of the two short 105:00 put options on December 8th).

Long one March Bond (117:00 strike) put option from 128/64.

Short one March Bond (113:00 strike) put option from 51/64.

March options expire in 50 days.

 David Hall

 The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 This newsletter is not intended for dissemination to the public without prior approval from David Hall.

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March Treasury Bonds are up 4/32 at 115:17 this morning as I write.  The included chart shows that March T-bonds are still in an intermediate term down trend.  The directional movement indicators are bearish and the ADX line continues to rise confirming the strength of the downtrend.  The double top and break down the other day project that March T-bonds should fall towards the 111:00 area eventually.  As we approach the New Year’s holiday, expect that trading volume will fall.  I recommend holding on to our existing positions.

 Followers should be:

 Long one March Bond (114:00 strike) put option from 2 12/64. (Cost basis of 28/64, or $437.50, if you include the buy back of the two short 110:00 put options on December 8th).

Long one March Bond (108:00 strike) put option from 52/64.  (Cost basis of 2/64, or $31.25, if you include the buy back of the two short 105:00 put options on December 8th).

Long one March Bond (117:00 strike) put option from 128/64.

Short one March Bond (113:00 strike) put option from 51/64.

March options expire in 51 days.

 David Hall

 The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 This newsletter is not intended for dissemination to the public without prior approval from David Hall.

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March Treasury Bonds are down 4/32 at 114:28 this morning as I write.  The included chart shows that the down trend in bonds continues.  As mentioned before, the initial projected downside target of the March T-Bonds coming off of the double top is 111:00.  I may begin taking some profits if prices fall towards the 111:00 area soon.  The directional movement indicators are bearish and the ADX line continues to rise.

 Followers should be:

 Long one March Bond (114:00 strike) put option from 2 12/64. (Cost basis of 28/64, or $437.50, if you include the buy back of the two short 110:00 put options on December 8th).

Long one March Bond (108:00 strike) put option from 52/64.  (Cost basis of 2/64, or $31.25, if you include the buy back of the two short 105:00 put options on December 8th).

Long one March Bond (117:00 strike) put option from 128/64.

Short one March Bond (113:00 strike) put option from 51/64.

March options expire in 52 days.

 David Hall

 The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 This newsletter is not intended for dissemination to the public without prior approval from David Hall.

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March Treasury Bonds are down 12/32 at 114:27 this morning as I write.  The included chart shows that March T-Bonds are in a near term steep decline coming off of the break of the neckline to the double top last week.  The double top measures an initial downside price objective of 111:00.  The directional movement indicators are bearish and the ADX line is rising.  I am very happy with the current positions that we already have in place.  The US Treasury Department will be busy raising more money to finance our national debt by having treasury auctions for 2 year notes today, 5 year notes tomorrow and 7 year notes on Wednesday.  These shorter maturity auctions usually go well.  It is the longer term maturities like the 10 year and the 30 year  auctions that don’t go so well.  The common theme amongst all the auctions is that every time they have an auction, the amount to be borrowed gets bigger since our national debt grows by leaps and bounds.  Just how much appetite will foreigners or anyone else have over time for this paper, as our government needs to borrow more and more?

 Followers should be:

 Long one March Bond (114:00 strike) put option from 2 12/64. (Cost basis of 28/64, or $437.50, if you include the buy back of the two short 110:00 put options on December 8th).

Long one March Bond (108:00 strike) put option from 52/64.  (Cost basis of 2/64, or $31.25, if you include the buy back of the two short 105:00 put options on December 8th).

Long one March Bond (117:00 strike) put option from 128/64.

Short one March Bond (113:00 strike) put option from 51/64.

March options expire in 53 days.

 David Hall

 The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 This newsletter is not intended for dissemination to the public without prior approval from David Hall.

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March Treasury Bonds are up 3/32 at 116:01 this morning as I write.  By noon today most commodity markets will be closed including treasury bonds.  Trading volume should be very light.  The included chart shows that March Treasury Bonds broke the double bottom support a few days ago.  The double top at 123:00 and the neckline of the double top at 117:00, project a downside target of 111:00.  Based on the speed at which it took the previous rally to run from 111:00 to 123:00, it should take at least three months for March T-Bonds to fall to 111:00.  The caveat to that idea is the fact that more times than not, when it takes a long time for a rally to rally and peak out, the following selloff is usually quick as most longs will want out of the exit fast.  So, let’s say that the target of 111:00, if hit, should happen within three months from now.  Hold current positions.

 Followers should be:

 Long one March Bond (114:00 strike) put option from 2 12/64. (Cost basis of 28/64, or $437.50, if you include the buy back of the two short 110:00 put options on December 8th).

Long one March Bond (108:00 strike) put option from 52/64.  (Cost basis of 2/64, or $31.25, if you include the buy back of the two short 105:00 put options on December 8th).

Long one March Bond (117:00 strike) put option from 128/64.

Short one March Bond (113:00 strike) put option from 51/64.

March options expire in 57 days.

 David Hall

 The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 This newsletter is not intended for dissemination to the public without prior approval from David Hall.

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March Treasury Bonds are up 4/32 at 116:07 this morning as I write.  Most markets today are very quiet as investors are more focused on the holiday’s now than the markets.  By 12:15 PM tomorrow afternoon, all US commodity markets will be closed until after Christmas which is on Friday.  Trading will most likely be very quiet today and tomorrow.

The included chart shows that March Treasury Bonds broke below the support level in the 117:00 area a couple days ago.  The downside target for this move initially should be 111:00.  The directional movement indicators are bearish and the ADX line is rising which all confirm the strength of this down move.  We are currently positioned well to take advantage of this potential down move.

 Followers should be:

 Long one March Bond (114:00 strike) put option from 2 12/64. (Cost basis of 28/64, or $437.50, if you include the buy back of the two short 110:00 put options on December 8th).

Long one March Bond (108:00 strike) put option from 52/64.  (Cost basis of 2/64, or $31.25, if you include the buy back of the two short 105:00 put options on December 8th).

Long one March Bond (117:00 strike) put option from 128/64.

Short one March Bond (113:00 strike) put option from 51/64.

March options expire in 58 days.

 David Hall

 The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 This newsletter is not intended for dissemination to the public without prior approval from David Hall.

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March Treasury Bonds are down 15/32 at 116:13 this morning as I write.  The included chart shows that yesterday, March T-Bonds closed below the important support in the 117:00 area.  Today, we are witnessing some downside follow through from that weak close yesterday.  The double top at 123:00 measures down to the 111:00 area for a downside target.  The textbook way to get that downside target is to measure from the double top at 123:00 down to the neckline at 117:00 which is 6 full points.  Subtract that 6 points from the neckline of 117:00 and you get a downside target for the T-bonds of 111:00.  This will be just fine for those of you who have all of my recommended bond put trades on at this time.  The directional movement indicators are bearish and the ADX line is rising again confirming the strength of the downtrend. 

 Followers should be:

 Long one March Bond (114:00 strike) put option from 2 12/64. (Cost basis of 28/64, or $437.50, if you include the buy back of the two short 110:00 put options on December 8th).

Long one March Bond (108:00 strike) put option from 52/64.  (Cost basis of 2/64, or $31.25, if you include the buy back of the two short 105:00 put options on December 8th).

Long one March Bond (117:00 strike) put option from 128/64.

Short one March Bond (113:00 strike) put option from 51/64.

March options expire in 59 days.

 David Hall

 The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 This newsletter is not intended for dissemination to the public without prior approval from David Hall.

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March Treasury Bonds are down 16/32 at 117:24 this morning as I write.  The included chart shows that following the one day rally last Thursday, the March T-Bond market has largely given back that rally Friday and today so far.  Still looming overhead is the double top at 123:00 and below is a double bottom in the 117:00 area.  The directional movement indicators are bearish but the ADX line is meandering sideways.  A close below the 117:00 area would be bearish and the downside target of the confirmed double top would be in the 110:00 to 111:00 area.  We shall see.  For now, I recommend holding our current positions.

 Followers should be:

 Long one March Bond (114:00 strike) put option from 2 12/64. (Cost basis of 28/64, or $437.50, if you include the buy back of the two short 110:00 put options on December 8th).

Long one March Bond (108:00 strike) put option from 52/64.  (Cost basis of 2/64, or $31.25, if you include the buy back of the two short 105:00 put options on December 8th).

Long one March Bond (117:00 strike) put option from 128/64.

Short one March Bond (113:00 strike) put option from 51/64.

March options expire in 60 days.

 David Hall

 The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 This newsletter is not intended for dissemination to the public without prior approval from David Hall.

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March Treasury Bonds are down 1/32 at 118:29 this morning as I write.  The included chart shows that march T-Bonds have a well defined trading range established between the double top at 123:00 and the double bottom in the 117:00 area.  Everything in between is noise.  This current bounce in the bonds has brought prices right up to the area of the 40 and 90 day exponential moving averages.  A 50% correction inside the range would put bond prices up into the 120:00 area which is also where the 200 day moving average is located.  So there are several resistance levels inside of this range.  If the March Bonds begin to roll over in the next week or so, then I will be looking to add more to our current bearish positions.  The directional movement indicators are bearish and the ADX line is meandering sideways.

 Followers should be:

Long one March Bond (114:00 strike) put option from 2 12/64. (Cost basis of 28/64, or $437.50, if you include the buy back of the two short 110:00 put options on December 8th).

Long one March Bond (108:00 strike) put option from 52/64.  (Cost basis of 2/64, or $31.25, if you include the buy back of the two short 105:00 put options on December 8th).

Long one March Bond (117:00 strike) put option from 128/64.

Short one March Bond (113:00 strike) put option from 51/64.

March options expire in 63 days.

 David Hall

 The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 This newsletter is not intended for dissemination to the public without prior approval from David Hall.

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March Treasury Bonds are up 24/32 at 118:08 this morning as I write.  The included chart shows that T-Bonds are rebounding off of the 117:00 support area.  The directional movement indicators are bearish and the ADX line is edging higher suggesting that there is more downside to come in prices.  So, for now, this looks like a bounce in a bear move.  Yesterday, following the year end Fed meeting, the commentary suggested more of the same, that is leaving short term rates between zero and ¼ of a percent.  The Fed sees little worry about inflation for now, and will focus on keeping rates low to help the economy grow and hopefully see unemployment drop.  That is basically what the Fed has been saying for months.  If they want to see the economy grow faster, they are going to have to figure out a way to get banks to lend money again.  We shall see.

The large trading range in T-Bonds is still bounded by 123:00 on the top and 117:00 on the bottom.  I recommend holding current positions as is.

 Followers should be:

 Long one March Bond (114:00 strike) put option from 2 12/64. (Cost basis of 28/64, or $437.50, if you include the buy back of the two short 110:00 put options on December 8th).

Long one March Bond (108:00 strike) put option from 52/64.  (Cost basis of 2/64, or $31.25, if you include the buy back of the two short 105:00 put options on December 8th).

Long one March Bond (117:00 strike) put option from 128/64.

Short one March Bond (113:00 strike) put option from 51/64.

March options expire in 64 days.

 David Hall

 The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 This newsletter is not intended for dissemination to the public without prior approval from David Hall.

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